The Streets Speak Louder Than the Spin
There is an uncomfortable truth echoing through the streets of Melbourne’s CBD: it no longer feels safe.
Having spent close to two decades working in and around the city, I can say with confidence that the current atmosphere is unlike anything I have seen before. Sirens now form the city’s soundtrack. Random acts of violence are no longer isolated incidents but daily newsfeed entries. Street-level disorder, fuelled by a combination of social distress, drug use, and policy drift has reached a point where confidence, once fragile, is now breaking.
The homelessness issue has always been with us, and it deserves empathy, structure, and sustained attention. But the tone has changed. Many individuals living rough appear to be in far greater distress and volatility than in previous cycles. The sense of unpredictability and of danger has become a defining feature of the urban experience.
The Physical Nature of Property: Why Crime Matters
Commercial property is, by definition, a physical asset class. Unlike technology or cryptocurrency, it exists in a tangible ecosystem. Its performance is inseparable from the perception and reality of the environment surrounding it.
When safety deteriorates, the ripple effect is immediate and measurable:
- Foot traffic declines. Workers and visitors avoid certain precincts, reducing spend and engagement.
- Tenancy risk increases. Businesses, particularly those in F&B and retail, feel the strain of lower visitation and higher security costs.
- Capital values erode. Investors adjust their risk premiums; yields shift upward as confidence retreats.
In simple terms: when people feel unsafe, property stops performing.
This is a particularly cruel blow for the Melbourne CBD office market, already reeling from the twin shocks of COVID-19 and entrenched hybrid work patterns. Just as we begin to see tentative signs of stabilisation, what I called “Quarter Past Midnight” earlier this year, the surge in street-level crime risks turning the clock backwards again.
A Threat to the Asian Dollar
One of Victoria’s greatest economic strengths has long been its ability to attract Asian capital from students and tourists to high-net-worth investors and institutions. These groups bring not only financial resources but cultural and social vibrancy that has helped shape modern Melbourne.
However, safety is a non-negotiable precondition for this flow of capital.
Asian investors, whether from Singapore, China, Malaysia, Hong Kong, or Korea, place immense value on urban stability and security. The perception that Melbourne is becoming a city where crime is tolerated or uncontained is already causing quiet concern in investment circles. If this sentiment takes hold, the consequences could be lasting:
- Reduced tourism and retail spend;
- Slower apartment pre-sales and investment inflows;
- Pressure on PBSA (Purpose-Built Student Accommodation), BTR (Build-to-Rent), and CBD apartment absorption;
- A chilling effect on institutional allocations into Victorian commercial real estate.
For a state reliant on external capital, this is a risk we cannot afford to ignore.
Government Assurances vs. Street-Level Reality
Official messaging continues to emphasise that “the city is safe.” But this is not the experience of its occupants. Policymakers risk losing credibility when rhetoric diverges from lived reality.
What’s needed is not more reassurance, it’s visible, decisive action:
- A more consistent police presence and enforcement of street-level offences;
- Integrated mental health and rehabilitation programs for the visibly distressed;
- Collaboration between government, property owners, and local business operators to rebuild confidence in the CBD.
The Melbourne CBD is not just a geographic centre; it is the symbolic heart of Victoria’s economy. Its health affects everything from university precincts and tourism flows to the valuation of office towers and the viability of local retailers.
Protests and Public Perception: The Weekend Toll
Another compounding issue that can no longer be ignored is the frequency and disruption caused by weekend protests.
While public expression and the right to protest are fundamental pillars of democracy, the scale and persistence of demonstrations in Melbourne’s CBD have reached a tipping point. Every Saturday or Sunday that major intersections are shut down, whether for political rallies, international conflicts, or local causes, the city’s image as a functioning, accessible capital takes another hit.
The cumulative effect is subtle but powerful:
- Visitors and families stay away. Weekends, traditionally vital for retail and hospitality recovery, are becoming “no-go zones.”
- Investors and international observers take note. The optics of repeated civil unrest send the wrong message about Melbourne’s stability and civic management.
- Tenants lose confidence. Retailers and restaurateurs already facing labour shortages and cost pressures can’t afford lost trade days tied to social disorder.
Protests during the week are one thing; on weekends, when the city should belong to its residents, small business owners, and visitors, the disruption compounds the perception that the Melbourne CBD is ungoverned and unwelcoming.
It’s time for the government and city authorities to rethink the rules around protest scheduling, balancing the right to free expression with the urgent need to restore confidence and accessibility to the city centre. Melbourne’s recovery depends on activity not interruption.
At Risk: A Prolonged Value Decline
The data is already stark. Melbourne’s CBD commercial assets have endured one of the most sustained valuation corrections in three decades, a longer and deeper cycle than even the Global Financial Crisis. During the GFC, recovery began within two years. Today, more than five years on from COVID-19’s onset, there’s little sign of a full rebound.
Now, the safety crisis and the continual perception of unrest threaten to prolong and deepen this stagnation. If investor confidence erodes further, we may see:
- Secondary office assets pushed into structural obsolescence;
- Retail yields widen further, particularly in lower pedestrian precincts;
- Capital flight toward Brisbane, Perth, and select regional markets with stronger safety perception and civic order.
Final Word: Protecting the City’s Most Valuable Asset
Melbourne’s urban revival depends on restoring trust the kind that can’t be rebuilt with marketing campaigns or tourism slogans. It begins with ensuring that those who live, work, and invest here feel safe to do so.
The time for political caution has passed. The city’s streets are speaking louder than the press conferences. It’s time to listen.
If we fail to act decisively, we risk not only reputational damage but the slow and silent erosion of property values across our most critical asset: the Melbourne CBD.
Until next time, Mark Wizel